WMO Report Forecasts Continued Record Temperatures Over Next Five Years

According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), global temperatures are likely to remain at or near record highs over the next five years. This trend poses increased risks to societies, economies, and sustainable development. The WMO's report predicts that from 2025 to 2029, the global mean near-surface temperature will be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average from 1850 to 1900.

The likelihood of experiencing a year warmer than the current record-holder, 2024, is estimated at 80 percent for the period between 2025 and 2029. Additionally, there is an 86 percent chance that at least one year will exceed a temperature rise of more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The probability of the five-year average warming surpassing this threshold has increased to 70 percent, up from last year's estimate of 47 percent for 2024-2028.

Warming in the Arctic is expected to be particularly severe over the next five winters, with temperatures predicted to rise more than three and a half times faster than the global average. This would result in an increase of approximately 2.4°C above the baseline period of 1991-2020. Such changes could lead to further reductions in sea ice concentration in regions like the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk by March 2025-2029.

Precipitation patterns are also expected to shift significantly during May-September from 2025 to 2029 compared to the baseline period of 1991-2020. Wetter conditions are anticipated in areas such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia. Conversely, drier conditions are forecasted for regions like the Amazon during this season.

The South Asian region has experienced wetter-than-average years recently, excluding 2023. This trend is projected to continue through the years from 2025 to 2029, although not necessarily for every individual season within this timeframe.

Implications for Societies and Economies

The report underscores that each additional fraction of a degree in warming can exacerbate harmful weather events such as heatwaves, extreme rainfall, intense droughts, ice sheet melting, ocean heating, and rising sea levels. "We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record," stated WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett. "Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years."

Barrett emphasised that ongoing climate monitoring and prediction are crucial for equipping decision-makers with science-based tools and information necessary for adaptation strategies.

The findings highlight an urgent need for action as these climatic changes could have profound effects on economies, daily life, ecosystems, and our planet's overall health.

With inputs from WAM