UAE’s Non-Oil Economy Resilience Supports Growth And Strengthens Global Trade Hub Position

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently released its Monthly Oil Market Report for September 2025. The report highlighted the resilience of non-oil sectors in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with steady overall output growth. The UAE's Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved to 53.3 in August, recovering from a dip to 52.9 in July, which was its lowest point in four years due to regional uncertainties and rising competition.

Fitch Ratings affirmed the UAE’s sovereign credit rating at "AA-" with a stable outlook, reflecting strong sovereign assets and boosting investor confidence. This affirmation underscores the country's macroeconomic stability. Additionally, non-oil trade showed robust performance, with foreign trade increasing by 24% in the first half of 2025, significantly surpassing global trade growth of 1.8%. This expansion highlights the UAE’s role as a major global trade hub and supports the vitality of its non-oil sectors.

Tourism also played a crucial role in economic growth, with Dubai attracting nearly 10 million visitors in the first half of the year. This aligns with Dubai's "D33" economic agenda, which aims to establish it as a top global destination, thereby contributing to fiscal revenues and enhancing macroeconomic stability.

The report maintained its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2025 at approximately 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year, consistent with last month's assessment. Within this projection, oil demand in OECD countries is expected to grow by about 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while non-OECD demand is anticipated to rise by around 1.2 mb/d.

Looking ahead to 2026, global oil demand is projected to increase by 1.4 mb/d, unchanged from previous estimates. Of this growth, OECD demand is expected to expand by 0.2 mb/d year-on-year, while non-OECD demand is forecasted to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d. Transportation fuels such as gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel are predicted to remain key drivers of demand growth during both years, followed closely by LPG and naphtha used in petrochemicals.

The UAE's economic resilience is evident through its diversified growth strategies and strong performance across various sectors. The country's efforts in expanding non-oil trade and tourism have reinforced its position as a dynamic global trade hub while maintaining macroeconomic stability.

With inputs from WAM