One In Four Jobs Worldwide At Risk Of Transformation Due To Generative AI, According To ILO Study

A recent study by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and Poland’s National Research Institute (NASK) reveals that one in four jobs globally could be influenced by generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). However, the focus is on transformation rather than replacement. The report, titled "Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure," offers a comprehensive view of how GenAI might alter employment worldwide.

The study introduces an index that combines nearly 30,000 occupational tasks with expert validation, AI-assisted scoring, and ILO harmonised micro data. This index provides a detailed picture of how AI could change jobs across different countries. Pawel Gmyrek, ILO Senior Researcher and lead author, stated, "We went beyond theory to build a tool grounded in real-world jobs. By combining human insight, expert review, and generative AI models, we’ve created a replicable method that helps countries assess risk and respond with precision."

The report highlights that 25 percent of global employment is within occupations potentially exposed to GenAI. In high-income countries, this figure rises to 34 percent. Women face higher exposure levels; in affluent nations, jobs at high risk of automation account for 9.6 percent of female employment compared to 3.5 percent among men.

Clerical roles are most susceptible due to GenAI's potential to automate many tasks. However, as GenAI capabilities grow, some highly digitised cognitive roles in media, software, and finance sectors also see increased exposure. Despite this, full job automation remains limited as many tasks still require human input.

Marek Troszyński from NASK noted the importance of the index in identifying where GenAI might have significant impacts. He said it allows countries to better prepare and protect workers. The next step involves applying this index to detailed labour force data from Poland.

The study underscores that these figures represent potential exposure rather than actual job losses. Technological limitations, infrastructure gaps, and skill shortages mean implementation will vary by country and sector. Importantly, the authors emphasise that GenAI is more likely to transform jobs than eliminate them.

Guiding Digital Transitions

Policies guiding digital transitions will play a crucial role in determining how workers are retained in evolving occupations due to AI. These policies will also affect job quality during such transformations. The report encourages governments, employers’, and workers’ organisations to engage in social dialogue to develop proactive strategies that enhance productivity and job quality.

The findings introduce "exposure gradients," which categorise occupations based on their exposure level to GenAI. This helps policymakers distinguish between jobs at high risk of full automation and those likely to evolve through task transformation.

The study points out divergent paths for occupations familiar with rapid digital changes like software developers compared to those with limited digital skills facing more negative impacts.

This joint research by ILO and NASK provides valuable insights into how generative AI could reshape the workforce landscape globally while stressing the importance of strategic planning for future workforce needs.

With inputs from WAM