J.P. Morgan Unveils 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions For Resilient Portfolios

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has unveiled its 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs), offering a detailed 10-15 year forecast for asset class returns and risks.

This comes as the factors causing recent market volatility begin to subside. The report provides insights into building resilient portfolios amid moderate growth, economic nationalism, and rapid AI-driven innovation.

The report outlines expected returns for various asset classes. U.S. intermediate Treasuries are anticipated to yield 4%, while long Treasuries might return 4.9%. U.S. investment-grade credit is projected at 5.2%, with spreads narrowing due to shorter debt maturity issuance. High-yield credit in the U.S. could see returns of 6.1% driven by improved credit quality.

In equities, U.S. large-cap stocks are expected to maintain a 6.7% return as tech deployment expands across sectors and index concentration concerns ease. Global equities could return 7% (USD), benefiting from currency gains outside the U.S., while emerging markets equities might achieve a 7.8% return (USD) after strong performances this year.

Private equity is projected to yield a 10.2% return due to favorable exit conditions and growth in technology and AI sectors. U.S. core real estate may see an 8.2% return from attractive entry points and higher yields, whereas European core real estate is forecasted at 6.9%. Global core infrastructure is anticipated to return 6.5%, reflecting its essential role amidst changing trade policies.

Commodities are expected to maintain a return assumption of 4.6%, influenced by energy transitions and geopolitical risks, with gold projected at a higher return of 5.5%. Timberland globally is predicted to yield a 6.3% return, up from last year's estimate of 5.3%.

"J.P. Morgan is differentiated by the longevity and long-term perspective that we bring to our active management. With 30 years of producing Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, we consistently offer essential guidance to clients ranging from institutional investors to high-net-worth individuals.

"As our clients face a rapidly evolving investment landscape, the LTCMAs share the insights of over 100 experts, equipping them to build resilient portfolios in an era of moderate growth, rising economic nationalism, and rapid AI-driven innovation," stated George Gatch, CEO of J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Market Resilience Amid Challenges

The report highlights market resilience despite slower growth projections due to labor market changes, with asset returns remaining robust overall. Economic nationalism presents challenges but also opportunities for increased domestic investment as countries respond to trade tensions.

"The global economy is adapting to a new set of realities, with fiscal activism, technological adoption, and demographic shifts driving both challenges and opportunities," said Dr David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Technological Influence on Markets

The ongoing bull market continues to be driven by capital investments and technology spending, providing momentum across broader markets as governments introduce record stimulus measures and incentives.

"Our 30th anniversary Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions reflect on three decades of market evolution and look ahead to a future shaped by technology, shifting policy, and new asset classes," commented John Bilton, Head of Global Multi-Asset Strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Strategic Portfolio Building

"For investors today, building resilience means going beyond the traditional," said Grace Peters, Global Co-Head of Investment Strategy for J.P Morgan Private Bank.

The report suggests that diversification through global equities and alternatives like real assets can enhance portfolio resilience in volatile times while offering new sources of returns through smarter portfolio strategies.

The LTCMAs have evolved over three decades from a simple spreadsheet into a globally trusted program based on rigorous research combining quantitative and qualitative insights from over 100 industry experts worldwide.