Global Trade Outlook 2026: Majority Of Executives Expect Growth Despite Rising Volatility

Senior supply chain executives remain upbeat on trade prospects for 2026, even as global conditions stay tense. DP World’s new Global Trade Observatory Annual Outlook Report 2026 shows 94% expect trade growth next year to match or beat 2025, despite higher volatility, policy uncertainty and the likelihood of more trade barriers.

The optimism sits against weaker macro projections. The IMF expects global trade growth by volume could slow to 2.3% in 2026, from an estimated 3.6% in 2025. Yet many businesses still plan for expansion, rather than contraction, in cross-border flows and logistics activity.

The Global Trade Observatory research is based on a survey of 3,500 senior logistics and supply chain leaders. Respondents cover eight industries and 19 countries and were surveyed ahead of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos. The sample spans major trading regions, giving a wide view of business expectations for 2026.

Overall, 54% of respondents think trade will grow faster in 2026 than in 2025, while 40% see similar growth. This optimism persists although 53% foresee high or very high policy uncertainty, and 90% expect trade barriers to increase or remain at current levels. Only 25% anticipate a negative effect on their own business.

Executives identify several regions with the strongest trade growth potential in 2026. Europe is mentioned most often, with 22% of respondents pointing to the region. China follows at 17%, then Asia Pacific at 14% and North America at 13%. These views highlight where companies expect new flows and capacity demand.

Companies also show clear plans to redesign supply chains and trading routes. The survey indicates that resilience has become a central strategic theme rather than a side project. Leaders are adjusting suppliers, inventory policies and locations to protect operations from shocks and policy shifts across markets.

Key strategic adjustments reported for 2026 include supplier diversification, higher stock levels and friend-shoring. The most cited moves are shown below.

Route decisions also change as part of this Global Trade Observatory trade growth planning. Some 26% of respondents intend to use new trade routes in 2026, while a further 23% are actively assessing alternatives. Cost reduction is a leading driver at 38%, alongside better inland infrastructure and connectivity at 36%, and faster customs procedures at 35%.

Global Trade Observatory trade growth frictions and investment focus

Border processes remain a major source of disruption. Around 60% of surveyed executives name customs clearance as a top cause of delays and interruptions. In response, 39% prioritise investment in warehousing and logistics hubs, while 36% highlight road networks and another 36% focus on border and customs processing infrastructure.

The Global Trade Observatory findings underline the need for infrastructure and service partners that can manage complexity. Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Group Chairman and CEO of DP World, said: "Global trade is becoming increasingly complex, not less so. Our role is clear: to keep trade moving by understanding where friction exists, anticipating where it may emerge next, and investing in the infrastructure, capabilities and partnerships that help our customers operate more efficiently and reliably."

The research also reflects how resilience thinking is now embedded in corporate strategy. The GTO Annual Outlook was developed with Geneva-based insights agency, Horizon Group. Margareta Drzeniek, Managing Partner, Horizon Group, said: "What we’re seeing is confidence with contingency plans. Executives are embedding resilience into strategy by diversifying suppliers, reassessing routes and adding options, because volatility is now the baseline. Those best positioned will be the ones who can turn those resilience plans into measurable performance."

The DP World Global Trade Observatory is described as a data and insights platform to support decision-makers. It provides analysis on the forces reshaping global trade, using research that includes the proprietary survey of 3,500 executives across eight industries and 19 countries. The latest wave of research was conducted in November 2025 with Horizon Group in Geneva.

For business readers, the Global Trade Observatory trade growth outlook suggests a split between cautious macro views and confident boardroom plans. Executives expect more friction and slower global volumes, yet still prepare for expansion and rerouting. The emphasis on resilient networks, infrastructure investment and flexible sourcing is likely to shape trade flows into 2026.

With inputs from WAM