Volatile 2026 In Global Logistics Predicted By Executives At WGS

Logistics decision-makers are preparing for another turbulent year in trade, geopolitics and the global economy, with most planning to lean more on AI, tighten cost control and redesign supply networks, according to the 2026 Agility Emerging Markets Index survey of 503 industry professionals.

Among those surveyed, 86 percent expect 2026 to bring greater instability or consider political, trade and economic shocks to be a "new normal," while 98 percent say their organisations already deploy artificial intelligence in at least one area of supply chain or operations management.

The Agility Emerging Markets Index findings indicate that supply chain reconfiguration, triggered first by COVID disruptions, then US-China tensions and more recent tariff increases, is still ongoing, with 97 percent of executives saying their companies have shifted or are planning to shift some production or sourcing to alternative markets as part of diversification strategies.

Companies report that tariffs and wider protectionist trade policies are the threat they feel least prepared to manage, so many are prioritising supplier diversification, freight consolidation and strategic warehousing to buffer against sudden policy changes and keep inventory and transport flows stable across regions including the Middle East.

The 2026 Index provides detailed analysis of the six Gulf economies, which are positioning themselves as global logistics and transit hubs by investing in AI, energy transition projects and workforce skills, with the report noting that the GCC area is "thriving" as a trade crossroads, strengthened by rapid adoption and scaling of AI, and its ability to remain on good terms with both the US and China.

According to the Index, "Volatility won’t derail (Gulf) ambition," and the six Gulf states sit among the top 12 markets worldwide for business conditions, while in digital readiness the leaders are China, Malaysia, India, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, highlighting how technology investment and policy reforms support logistics competitiveness.

Emerging markets, AI and Agility Emerging Markets Index competitiveness

Now in its 17th year, the Agility Emerging Markets Index ranks 50 countries on overall competitiveness using measures such as domestic and international logistics strength, business climate and digital readiness, criteria important to logistics providers, freight forwarders, air and ocean carriers, distributors and investors assessing opportunities in emerging economies.

Stability continues at the top of the 2026 rankings, where China, India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Qatar, Mexico, Thailand and Brazil occupy positions one through ten, while Ukraine rises seven places to 31st and Tunisia climbs four spots to 32nd, contrasting with falls for Cambodia, Pakistan and Bolivia.

In the Index’s international logistics opportunity category, China, India, Mexico, the UAE and Saudi Arabia rank highest, while for domestic logistics performance the leaders are China, India, Indonesia, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, underlining the role of both internal infrastructure and cross-border connectivity in shaping global supply options.

Agility Chairman Tarek Sultan said, "Leaders in business and government realise there is no comfort zone, no time to rest. They’re searching for durable paths to growth at a time of extraordinary uncertainty," and added, "They see AI as both a contributor to volatility and a tool to manage it. They’re facing new trade barriers in real time. They’re pushing the energy transition, and they’re navigating conflict between economic partners."

AI, sustainability and Agility Emerging Markets Index industry pressures

The survey reveals tension between sustainability goals and near-term financial pressures, with 48 percent of respondents saying their companies are pausing or slowing environmental initiatives, mainly because of cost-cutting, shifting business priorities and difficulty showing clear return on investment for climate and energy projects linked to logistics activities.

Transport Intelligence (Ti), the logistics analysis and research firm that has compiled the Index since its launch in 2009, notes a pattern of "structural uncertainty," with Chief Executive John Manners-Bell stating, "One phrase which came up time and again throughout our research was ‘structural uncertainty’ - caused by geopolitical fragmentation, trade policy volatility and uneven economic momentum. The Index confirms that supply chain companies aren’t retreating from this uncertainty but instead are engineering around it."

Reflecting on differing capabilities across regions, John Manners-Bell said, "Looking at emerging markets, we see advanced digital tools being embedded in some, while others are constrained by skill, infrastructure and access to capital."

For Middle East stakeholders, the 2026 Agility Emerging Markets Index suggests that continued investment in AI, digital infrastructure and energy transition, alongside efforts to maintain balanced international relationships, is helping Gulf economies, including the UAE, strengthen their roles in global supply chains even as trade, sustainability and geopolitical challenges become more complex.

With inputs from WAM