Global Temperatures Surpass 1.5°C Above Pre-Industrial Levels For A Year

The average global temperature has been 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era for 12 consecutive months, according to new data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. This period includes the hottest June on record and marks the 13th month in a row to set a monthly temperature record.

According to Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5 data, June was 1.50°C above the estimated average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period. This is the twelfth consecutive month to reach or exceed the 1.5°C threshold.

The global-average temperature for the past year (July 2023 – June 2024) is 1.64°C above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900, based on ERA5 dataset findings.

The sea surface temperature (SST) averaged for June 2024 over 60°S–60°N was recorded at 20.85°C, marking the highest value for June in history. This is also the fifteenth consecutive month that SST has been the warmest in the ERA5 data record for its respective month.

"June witnessed widespread and prolonged heatwaves in many countries, with major impacts on all aspects of people’s life. This was even before the traditional peak of the northern hemisphere summer, which will undoubtedly see more extreme heat. The record sea surface temperatures are of great concern to vital marine ecosystems and they also provide energy to super-charge tropical cyclones – as we saw with Hurricane Beryl," said Celeste Saulo.

Temporary Breaches and Long-Term Goals

"These latest figures from the Copernicus Climate Change Service unfortunately highlight that we will be exceeding the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency, on a monthly basis. However, it is important to stress that temporary breaches do not mean that the 1.5 °C goal is permanently lost because this refers to long-term warming over at least two decades," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to keeping long-term global average surface temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and striving to limit it to 1.5°C by century's end.

Future Climate Predictions

"Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm. This is inevitable unless we stop adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and oceans," said Carlo Buontempo, Director of Copernicus Climate Change Service.

The scientific community has consistently warned that warming beyond 1.5°C could trigger far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather events, emphasising that every fraction of a degree matters.

With inputs from WAM