FAO Projects Global Rice Output To Increase By 1.5% To Record High Of 543.6 Million Tonnes In 2024/25

The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) has released its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, providing updated forecasts for 2024 and insights into cropping conditions for 2025. The FAO predicts that wheat production in 2025 will reach 795 million tonnes, matching last year’s output. This is due to expected record yields in Asia, particularly in India and Pakistan, along with improved conditions in southern Europe and North Africa.

Despite these positive trends, challenges persist. Rainfall shortages in northern Europe and the Near East, coupled with drought concerns in the United States, are impacting overall wheat production prospects. Meanwhile, coarse grain harvesting is underway in the southern hemisphere. Maize production is anticipated to rise in Brazil and South Africa. In the northern hemisphere, a 5% increase in coarse grain plantings is expected in the United States.

FAO has slightly lowered its global cereal production estimate for 2024 to 4,848 million tonnes. However, global rice output for 2024/25 is projected to grow by 1.5%, reaching a record high of 543.6 million tonnes. This growth reflects increased rice consumption across various African countries.

The FAO forecasts world cereal utilisation for 2024/25 at 2,870 million tonnes, marking a 1% rise from the previous year. This increase is driven by higher maize feed use in China and Russia and greater rice consumption across Africa. However, world cereal stocks are expected to fall by 1.9% to 868.2 million tonnes by the end of the 2025 season.

This decline will reduce the world cereal stocks-to-use ratio to 29.9% for 2024/25, though it remains within a comfortable buffer zone. The FAO has also revised its forecast for global cereal trade in 2024/25 downwards to 478.6 million tonnes, representing a 6.8% decrease from the previous year and marking the lowest level since the 2019/20 period.

Impact on Global Trade

Global trade in coarse grains is expected to contract more rapidly due to reduced demand from China and smaller exportable maize supplies from Brazil. Conversely, international rice trade is predicted to rise by 1.2%, reaching a new record of 60.4 million tonnes.

These forecasts highlight both opportunities and challenges within global cereal markets as they adapt to varying regional conditions and demand shifts.

With inputs from WAM