Countries Can Meet COP28 Goals By Tripling Renewable Energy By 2030, Says IEA

New analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals that countries have a significant opportunity in the coming months to develop clear plans for boosting renewable power. This could help move the world closer to achieving the COP28 goal of tripling global capacity by 2030.

The report, "COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge: Tracking countries' ambitions and identifying policies to bridge the gap," finds that while renewable power is central to achieving international energy and climate goals, very few countries have explicitly laid out 2030 targets for installed capacity in their existing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.

Official commitments in NDCs currently amount to 1,300 gigawatts (GW), just 12 percent of what is required to meet the global tripling objective set in Dubai. However, new country-by-country analysis by the IEA, covering nearly 150 countries worldwide, finds that governments' domestic ambitions correspond to almost 8,000 GW of global installed renewable capacity by 2030.

This means that if countries were to include all their existing policies, plans, and estimates in their new NDCs due next year, they would reflect 70 percent of what is needed by 2030 to reach the tripling goal. This corresponds to 11,000 GW of installed renewable capacity globally. The report emphasises that countries need to accelerate implementation and move their ambitions higher to align with the tripling goal.

"At COP28, nearly 200 countries pledged to triple the world's renewable power capacity this decade, which is one of the critical actions to keep alive hopes of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. This report makes clear that the tripling target is ambitious but achievable – though only if governments quickly turn promises into plans of action," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

Progress and Challenges

More countries are turning towards renewables such as solar PV and wind following a sharp drop in costs over the past decade and renewed efforts by governments to build resilient energy systems with lower emissions. According to the report, the amount of renewable capacity added worldwide each year has tripled since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.

This progress is largely thanks to policy support, economies of scale, and technological advancements, which have driven down the cost of solar PV and wind by over 40 percent over the same period. Global renewable capacity additions reached almost 560 GW in 2023, a significant 64 percent year-over-year increase from 2022, with China being the biggest contributor.

Addressing Key Challenges

Despite these advancements, key challenges remain. These include lengthy wait times for project permits, inadequate investment in grid infrastructure, the need to integrate variable renewables quickly and cost-efficiently, and high financing costs, especially in emerging and developing economies.

The report proposes targeted actions that countries can take to address these obstacles. For example, on reducing financing costs to improve the bankability of renewable projects, it suggests approaches such as improving long-term policy visibility; supporting projects in the pre-development phase; and reducing price, inflation, and exchange rate risks.

IEA's Role

The IEA played an important role in shaping the energy package agreed at COP28 and continues to comprehensively track progress towards these pledges. With its data, analysis, and policy recommendations, the IEA is committed to driving forward this next crucial phase in implementing the Paris Agreement at the request of governments.

With inputs from WAM