WMO Report Predicts 2024 Will Be The Hottest Year On Record Due To Climate Change Effects

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has indicated that 2024 might become the hottest year recorded. This prediction is largely due to the weakening cooling effect of La Niña. La Niña is known for cooling sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which impacts wind patterns, pressure, and rainfall.

In its recent report from Geneva, the WMO suggested that La Niña conditions could emerge within three months. Long-term forecasts from global prediction centres show a 55% chance of shifting from neutral conditions to La Niña between December 2024 and February 2025. There is also a 55% probability of returning to neutral conditions by February to April 2025.

El Niño, which contrasts with La Niña, signifies a warming phase. It involves reduced cold water upwelling near South America, causing higher sea surface temperatures across the Pacific and warmer atmospheric conditions. The WMO notes that La Niña typically results in widespread cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

These changes often lead to climate impacts opposite to those of El Niño, especially in tropical regions. However, natural climate phenomena like La Niña and El Niño occur within the broader context of human-induced climate change. This overarching factor contributes to rising global temperatures, exacerbated extreme weather events, and altered precipitation patterns and seasonal temperatures.

The WMO highlighted that 2024 began under El Niño conditions and is likely to become the hottest year on record. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that even if La Niña emerges, its short-term cooling effect will not offset the warming caused by greenhouse gases trapping heat in the atmosphere.

She added that since May, even without El Niño or La Niña conditions, the world has experienced an extraordinary series of extreme weather events. These include record-breaking rainfall and flooding, which are becoming the new normal in a changing climate.

Importance of Seasonal Forecasts

The WMO stressed that seasonal forecasts of El Niño and La Niña are crucial tools for early warning and proactive measures. According to recent data, sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average across most ocean basins except for the eastern equatorial Pacific, where weak La Niña conditions are anticipated.

This means temperatures across nearly all land areas are expected to remain above average. The report underscores how these forecasts help prepare for potential climate impacts globally.

The ongoing changes in climate phenomena highlight the importance of understanding their effects on global weather patterns. As these events unfold within a broader context of human-induced climate change, they continue to influence global temperature trends significantly.

With inputs from WAM