Italy Targets Revival In Key Euro Match Against Croatia Following Spain Defeat

Italy’s head coach Luciano Spalletti has emphasised the need for his team to improve upon their previous match against Spain as they prepare to face Croatia next Monday in Leipzig. Italy's 10-game unbeaten streak in the European Championships ended following a 1-0 defeat to Luis de la Fuente’s Spain, highlighted by Riccardo Calafiori’s own goal in the second half.

Italy's offensive performance was lacklustre, with only four shots, the fewest they have recorded in a Euro game. Currently, Italy is second in Group B, with Croatia at the bottom. However, the group remains open with both teams still capable of advancing or being eliminated in the group stage.

Spalletti acknowledged that fatigue might have impacted his team’s performance and suggested he might have miscalculated the rest required for his players. He stated the need to balance recovery and the importance of the tournament, as the team appeared less sharp and fresh against Spain. The match against Croatia is significant as Italy seeks to avoid losing consecutive games at the Euros for the first time.

Italy's recent record against Croatia is challenging, having failed to win in their last eight encounters. Despite the setback against Spain, Spalletti aims to motivate his players by drawing inspiration from Spain’s gameplay, emphasising the importance of not sitting too deep defensively. He praised Spain's style and dominance, wanting his team to emulate that approach.

Meanwhile, Croatia faces potential elimination after securing only one point so far in the group stage. Head coach Zlatko Dalic has faced criticism despite a historically successful tenure, which includes leading the team to the 2018 World Cup final, the 2022 World Cup semi-finals, and the 2023 Nations League final. Dalic remains committed to preparing his team for their crucial match against Italy.

He demonstrated confidence in his decisions and defended his approach amidst criticism. In their previous match against Albania, Dalic substituted veteran Marcelo Brozovic with 21-year-old Luka Sucic at halftime, who then impressed on the field.

Key Players

Players to watch include Croatia’s Luka Modric, who potentially plays his final major tournament game, continuing to perform exceptionally despite his age. Modric's achievements include breaking records for line-breaking passes and completing over 100 passes in a match at age 38.

For Italy, Gianluigi Donnarumma, playing his 10th Euro match as the youngest goalkeeper to reach this milestone, is pivotal as Italy's defence is crucial, especially given their lacklustre offensive performance against Spain.

Match Expectations

Predicting a draw, the match holds significant expectations as both teams vie for progression. Opta's model slightly favours Italy, but Croatia’s unbeaten record against Italy since gaining independence presents a formidable challenge. Croatia historically performs well in final group games, adding to the complexity of the upcoming encounter.

The Opta win probability for the match leans slightly towards Italy at 39.7%, followed by a 32.6% chance for Croatia, and a 27.7% likelihood of a draw.