Euro 2024 Showdown: France Rethinks Tactics Without Mbappe For Netherlands Match

Both the Netherlands and France began their Euro 2024 campaigns with victories, though neither team delivered a wholly convincing performance. Ronald Koeman’s Dutch side managed a 2-1 comeback win against Poland, thanks to Wout Weghorst’s late goal. They aim to leverage the potential absence of Kylian Mbappe, who sustained a broken nose during France's narrow 1-0 win over Austria.

Mbappe, a crucial player for France, might miss the upcoming match despite being fitted with a protective mask. According to the Opta supercomputer, France holds a 52.3 percent chance of victory, compared to the Netherlands’ 24.4 percent. Historically, France and the Netherlands have met three times in the Euros, with France winning on penalties in 1996, and the Netherlands securing victories in the 2000 and 2008 group-stage matches.

However, recent encounters have seen France dominate, winning seven of their last eight matches against the Dutch since 2018. The Netherlands have been strong in major tournaments, losing only one of their last 17 matches (excluding penalty shoot-outs). In contrast, France, under Didier Deschamps, have recorded 100 wins and are aiming to continue their strong opening streaks in European Championships.

Wout Weghorst could play a pivotal role if the Netherlands struggle to penetrate France’s defense. Known for his crucial goals off the bench, Weghorst’s physical presence offers a different approach that could challenge France's defense. His winner against Poland came within minutes of his substitution. Cody Gakpo also remains vital, having scored in all his group-stage starts at major tournaments.

For France, Mbappe's potential absence might pave the way for Olivier Giroud to step in. Although Giroud has scored fewer goals in major tournaments, he has been a reliable forward, providing a traditional focal point and significant aerial threat. His presence could exploit the Netherlands' vulnerability on set-pieces, as demonstrated by their recent lapses against Poland.

Antoine Griezmann will also need to step up for France. With an impressive record of goal involvements at major tournaments since Euro 2016, he could be crucial in shouldering the attacking burden in Mbappe’s absence. Friday’s match will heavily test both teams.

The Netherlands will look to capitalize on their set-piece opportunities and the physicality of players like Weghorst. Conversely, France will rely on Giroud's experience and Griezmann's creativity to navigate Mbappe's potential absence and secure a vital win to maintain their position as group leaders.