Analyzing Brazil's Copa America Journey: Vinicius' Role And Dorival's Future

Brazil's Copa America journey ended in disappointment, despite entering the tournament as strong contenders. The Selecao were rated with a 23.2% chance of winning by the Opta supercomputer. However, they were eliminated in the quarter-finals by Uruguay, losing 4-2 on penalties. Brazil's group stage performance was lacklustre, with draws against Costa Rica and Colombia and only one win against Paraguay.

Vinicius Junior was expected to fill Neymar's shoes during the tournament. The Real Madrid winger had a mixed performance, failing to make a significant impact in the opening match against Costa Rica but scoring twice against Paraguay. His efforts included creating three chances and attempting 17 dribbles, completing seven of them. Unfortunately, his suspension for the match against Uruguay left Brazil without their key player.

Despite having other talented attackers like Raphinha, Rodrygo, and Endrick, Brazil struggled without Vinicius' influence. In their match against Uruguay, even with a man advantage for part of the second half, Brazil managed only seven shots and an expected goals (xG) value of 0.58.

Defensively, Brazil conceded only two goals throughout the tournament but allowed an xG of 3.24 against them. Alisson made five crucial saves in the game against Paraguay, highlighting his importance to the team. In midfield, Bruno Guimaraes and Lucas Paqueta worked hard, with Paqueta winning 12 out of 15 tackles attempted.

The midfield's workmanlike nature contrasts with Brazil's traditional flair. This shift is not entirely within Dorival Junior's control but reflects a broader change in Brazilian football style.

Dorival Junior's Rebuild

Dorival Junior took over as head coach in January and has asked for patience as he rebuilds the team. He left out several big names due to form or fitness issues and had to cope without Neymar due to injury. Dorival emphasised that he has only coached eight matches so far and that rebuilding takes time.

"We are undergoing a very important renovation or reinvention of this team," Dorival said. "I have only coached this team for eight matches and this is a process that we have to go through."

Offensive Metrics and Challenges

Brazil scored five goals across four matches, bettered by only five teams in the tournament. However, four of those goals came in one match against Paraguay. Their total xG was 6.33, with 3.74 coming from the Paraguay game alone. This leaves an average xG of 0.86 per game for the other three matches.

The Selecao also struggled offensively compared to other teams like Ecuador, Venezuela, and Mexico in terms of shots taken per game.

Brazil's Copa America campaign highlighted several areas needing improvement under Dorival Junior's leadership. While there were some promising moments, consistency remains a challenge for the Selecao moving forward.