The Triple Threat: How India's Protein Demand Will Reshape the Food System by 2070

India’s protein consumption is set to more than triple by 2070, a shift that presents a significant challenge for the national food system with far-reaching global implications, according to a new report from ARE and FICCI. The analysis indicates that continuing with current practices could result in cumulative emissions exceeding 44 GtCO₂e by 2070—a figure representing more than three-quarters of the world's total annual greenhouse gas emissions.

Singapore, 28 September 2026— The average annual protein intake per person in India is expected to climb from 9.5kg in 2025 to 30kg by 2070. A collaborative study by Asia Research & Engagement (ARE) and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) highlights the profound impact this trend will have on food security, agricultural resources, and investment landscapes.

The report, Charting India’s Protein Transition, was unveiled at the FICCI Symposium, Protein for India: Nutrition, Business, Sustainability and Policy Perspective, held at FICCI Federation House in New Delhi. It projects that under a business-as-usual scenario, annual emissions linked to protein could climb to 1.92 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gt CO₂e) by 2070. This is nearly eight times the 0.25 GtCO₂e threshold considered safe for the climate. Even more concerning is the estimate that cumulative excess emissions could surpass 44 GtCO₂. These findings arrive as India’s influence on global food demand continues to grow. By 2033, India and Southeast Asia are expected to represent 31% of 1 global agricultural and fisheries consumption. However, the report suggests this path is not set in stone, outlining strategies to curb emissions while simultaneously meeting demand, supporting livelihoods, and unlocking investment potential.

The report identifies four priorities for India’s protein transition:

• Production improvements will be critical, but not sufficient: While addressing methane, feed, manure, deforestation, energy, and food waste could lower annual protein-related emissions to 0.73 Gt CO₂e by 2070, this remains 2.9 times higher than the climate-safe limit. Incorporating greater protein diversification could further reduce this to 0.50 Gt CO₂e, while an integrated approach could potentially bring emissions down to 0.30 Gt CO₂e.
• Pulses present a major domestic innovation and growth opportunity: The report forecasts that consumption of pulse-derived protein will grow from 3.5 million tonnes in 2025 to 9.3 million tonnes by 2070, establishing pulses as India’s second-largest protein source after dairy. This expansion offers a chance to increase value for farmers and drive innovation in India’s established plant proteins. Furthermore, since India currently imports nearly 90% of its processed plant protein isolates, there is significant potential to boost domestic processing and high-value manufacturing.
• Existing supply constraints could intensify as demand grows: The analysis points to projected shortages of 35.6% in green fodder, 10.5% in dry fodder, and 44% in concentrate feed ingredients. These issues are likely to be exacerbated by climate pressures, which threaten to increase volatility in feed availability and production costs.
• Producers will be central to the transition: Smallholder farmers are responsible for roughly 72% of India’s milk production, and the poultry and fisheries sectors are heavily dependent on contract growers, fragmented producers, and smaller enterprises. Engaging these groups through targeted finance, procurement reform, technical support, and consultation is vital for a successful transition.

Turning the findings into action
Charting India’s Protein Transition concludes that a unified approach involving policy, finance, food production, and procurement is essential. Such coordination can help India satisfy its growing protein needs while lowering emissions, bolstering domestic value chains, and protecting the livelihoods of producers.

Rituj Sahu, Director – Protein Transition/Sustainable Food Systems (India), Asia Research & Engagement, said, "India is at a critical point in the development of its future protein system, but no single sector can address this alone. Government and regulators have a role in strengthening policy support, banks and investors in directing capital towards the transition, and food and agricultural businesses in improving production, procurement and protein diversification. ARE’s partnership with FICCI draws on its industry reach and influence to take these findings into the policy, investment and business decisions shaping India’s future protein system."

Ms Jyoti Vij, Director General, FICCI, emphasised, "The Charting India’s Protein Transition report highlights how India’s changing protein landscape presents a significant opportunity for industry to innovate, invest, and build resilient domestic food value chains. In line with the vision of Atmanirbhar Bharat, industry can play a key role in meeting evolving consumer needs, strengthening domestic capabilities and creating new opportunities for growth across the protein value chains."

– Download the Report HERE