Rice Production Forecast To Reach Record High Of 543 Million Tonnes For 2024/25 According To FAO

The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) anticipates a record rice production of 543 million tonnes in 2024/25. This increase is attributed to favourable conditions in India, Cambodia, and Myanmar. The FAO's Cereal Supply and Demand Brief highlights these positive crop prospects, suggesting a robust outlook for rice production globally.

Global cereal production is projected to reach 2,842 million tonnes in 2024, showing a slight rise from 2023 levels. This increase reflects improved conditions for various crops worldwide. However, challenges such as adverse weather could impact yields in certain regions.

Wheat production is expected to reach 796 million tonnes in 2025, marking a modest growth of nearly 1% from the previous year. The European Union, particularly France and Germany, are anticipated to see gains due to increased soft wheat sowings. Yet, dry conditions in Eastern Europe and excessive rain in Western areas may pose challenges.

In the United States, wheat acreage is set to expand despite potential yield declines caused by drought affecting winter crops. These factors contribute to a complex global wheat outlook for the coming year.

For the marketing year 2024/25, global cereal utilisation is forecasted at 2,867 million tonnes, reflecting a 1% rise from the previous year. This increase is largely driven by record rice consumption. Wheat use is expected to remain steady as reduced food consumption balances increased industrial demand, especially in China.

FAO projects a decline of 1.9% in global cereal stocks by the end of 2025, with stocks estimated at 869.3 million tonnes. While higher stocks are anticipated in Russia and Ukraine, reductions elsewhere will offset these gains. The global stocks-to-use ratio is predicted to decrease to 29.9%, still indicating an adequate supply level.

Global Cereal Trade Dynamics

The FAO has adjusted its forecast for global cereal trade to 484.2 million tonnes for the upcoming season. This represents a decrease of 5.6% compared to the previous season due to shifting export dynamics across different regions.

This comprehensive analysis by FAO provides insights into the global cereal market's future trends and challenges. It underscores the importance of monitoring weather patterns and market dynamics that can significantly influence agricultural outputs worldwide.

With inputs from WAM