MyRadar Forecasts An Active Atlantic Hurricane Season Influenced By La Niña And Warm Seas

MyRadar has released its first tropical outlook of the year ahead of the Atlantic hurricane season, starting on Saturday, June 1. This season is expected to be highly active, predominantly affecting the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the southwest Atlantic Ocean. Dr. David Ryglicki, MyRadar’s tropical expert and principal investigator, noted that this season could be as active as 2020, which saw a record high of 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes, and seven major hurricanes.

"Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasting is very challenging, but current conditions and seasonal outlooks suggest this season will, unfortunately, be as active as 2020," said Dr. Ryglicki. "We’re committed to providing impacted citizens access to free, reliable weather insights ahead of this expected intensified activity. I strongly encourage anyone near the Gulf Coast region to utilize the MyRadar app for actionable live weather updates on any and all storms that form this year."

Meteorological centers worldwide are forecasting the upcoming season’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) to be above 200 — a 62% increase compared to the seasonal average of 123. ACE considers both the intensity and duration of tropical cyclones. Dr. Ryglicki used various data sources, including predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and analyses by academic partners, to determine two significant factors contributing to this forecast: the ending of an El Niño episode in the central equatorial Pacific and the abnormal warmth of the Atlantic’s sea surface temperatures (SST).

El Niño and La Niña are oceanic phenomena focused on the equatorial Pacific Ocean. When waters closer to South America are warmer than those near Indonesia, El Niño conditions typically suppress hurricane activity. Conversely, La Niña conditions usually increase hurricane activity. Observational analyses indicate that El Niño is already over, and the transition to La Niña is underway.

Experts expect El Niño to transition toward a La Niña event in July using models targeting the El Niño Southern Oscillation index. This could potentially allow long-track tropical storms to develop across the Atlantic Ocean and into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico during the season’s peak.

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

SSTs in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, including the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, are alarmingly warm for this early in the season. Warm ocean waters provide necessary fuel — heat and moisture — to sustain violent tropical systems through enhanced evaporation, increasing the likelihood of waves intensifying into tropical cyclones.

Data from NOAA shows that as of May 26, the Caribbean Sea's current average SSTs — 29.2 degrees Celsius — are higher now than their September peak would be in a normal season — 28.9 degrees Celsius.

Upcoming Webinars

MyRadar will host a series of informative webinars throughout the upcoming hurricane season to provide updates on how storms will impact citizens across the Caribbean, U.S. Gulf states, and southeast Atlantic region. The first webinar will air on June 26 at 12:00 p.m. EDT and can be accessed at https://myradar.com/webinars/hurricane-season-webinar/.

About MyRadar

With more than 50 million downloads across iOS, Android, and Windows platforms, MyRadar develops science and technology applications to provide unparalleled access to weather and environmental data. By providing severe weather alerts for tropical storms, earthquakes, wildfires, blizzards, and road weather conditions, MyRadar facilitates informed decision-making in a rapidly changing climate.

A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, MyRadar ensures individuals and organizations stay informed and prepared.