Japan Develops Forecasting System For Mt. Fuji Volcanic Ash Spread

The Japan Meteorological Agency is set to introduce "wide-area" ashfall forecasts to better prepare for potential ash in the Tokyo metropolitan area following a significant eruption of Mt. Fuji. This new system aims to predict ashfall over a broader region and extended periods, according to the Japan News.

An eruption of Mt. Fuji could result in more than 30 centimetres of ash accumulating in nearby areas, causing severe damage such as collapsed buildings and disrupted transport systems. The agency's goal is to enable swift disaster response with this forecasting system.

The agency intends to begin developing this advanced system from the next fiscal year, with plans to launch it within a few years. This initiative includes setting up a new position dedicated to planning and coordinating volcanic ashfall information.

Historically, Mt. Fuji has erupted approximately every 30 years over the past 5,600 years. However, it has remained dormant for over three centuries since its last eruption during the Hoei period.

The Hoei eruption began on Dec. 16, 1707, and ash from Mt. Fuji fell intermittently for 16 days, reaching what is now central Tokyo due to high-altitude winds. It is estimated that around 1.7 billion cubic meters of ash and other materials were ejected during this event.

A government panel of experts is also discussing measures for a potential Mt. Fuji eruption and plans to establish guidelines by the end of this year. These efforts are part of a broader strategy to mitigate the impact of such natural disasters.

The agency's proactive approach aims to enhance preparedness and ensure timely responses to future volcanic activities, safeguarding lives and infrastructure in affected regions.