Is 2024 Poised To Break The Record As The Hottest Year Yet? Scientists Weigh In
For 13 consecutive months since June 2023, the planet has experienced its hottest months on record, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This trend compares each month with the same month in previous years.
The latest figures indicate that 2024 might surpass 2023 as the hottest year ever recorded. Scientists attribute this to human-induced climate change and the El Nino weather phenomenon, which have driven temperatures to unprecedented levels this year.
El Nino, a natural event warming the eastern Pacific Ocean's surface waters, typically increases global average temperatures. Recently, this effect has diminished, with neutral conditions prevailing before cooler La Nina conditions are anticipated later this year.
Greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion are primarily responsible for climate change. Despite pledges to mitigate global warming, countries have collectively failed to reduce these emissions, causing temperatures to rise steadily over decades.
"I now estimate that there is an approximately 95% chance that 2024 beats 2023 to be the warmest year since global surface temperature records began in the mid-1800s," stated Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth.
The altered climate has already led to devastating consequences worldwide in 2024. Over 1,000 people perished in extreme heat during last month's haj pilgrimage. Heat-related deaths were also reported in New Delhi amid an unusually prolonged heatwave and among tourists in Greece.
Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London's Grantham Institute, noted a "high chance" that 2024 would be the hottest year on record. She emphasised that while El Nino is a natural occurrence that cannot be stopped, reducing oil, gas, and coal consumption is within human control.
In the 12 months ending in June, the global average temperature was the highest ever recorded for any such period. It was 1.64 degrees Celsius above the average during the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900, according to C3S data.
The persistent rise in temperatures underscores the urgent need for effective measures to combat climate change. The international community must intensify efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions and transition towards sustainable energy sources.
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